TikTok is a popular short-form video app that has seen explosive growth since launching in 2016. Within just a few years, it has become one of the world’s most downloaded apps with over 1 billion monthly active users as of 2021 (source). TikTok allows users to create, share, and watch 15 to 60 second videos covering a wide range of genres including dance, comedy, education and more. It utilizes an algorithm that learns user preferences to serve up an endless stream of personalized content.
Originally launched as Douyin in China, TikTok has grown into a global phenomenon owned by Chinese company ByteDance. It was launched internationally as TikTok in 2017 after acquiring Musical.ly, another short-form video app. Despite its tremendous popularity, TikTok has faced scrutiny over data privacy concerns and its Chinese ownership. This has led some countries to impose partial or full bans, and even threats of a ban in the U.S. If implemented, a ban would have major implications for TikTok as a company and platform.
Previous Attempts to Ban TikTok
In 2020, then-President Donald Trump signed two executive orders attempting to ban TikTok in the United States. The first order, signed in August 2020, prohibited U.S. companies and individuals from doing business with TikTok’s parent company ByteDance. It aimed to ban downloads and updates of the TikTok app in the U.S. starting September 20, 2020 [1].
The second executive order, signed in August 2020, set a November 12, 2020 deadline for ByteDance to divest from TikTok’s U.S. operations. It essentially forced ByteDance to sell TikTok to an American company or face being banned in the U.S. Both orders cited national security concerns over TikTok’s data practices and potential ties to China [2].
However, courts blocked both executive orders in 2020 after TikTok sued the Trump administration. Judges ruled the orders were likely unconstitutional and lacked sufficient evidence of the national security threat posed by TikTok [3]. Neither executive order fully took effect, though the threat of a ban remained until President Biden revoked them in 2021.
How a TikTok Ban Would Work
If a ban were implemented, the most straightforward way to block TikTok would be preventing downloads and updates of the app in app stores like the Apple App Store and Google Play Store. App stores regularly enforce bans of certain apps based on factors like objectionable content, security risks, or violations of data privacy regulations.
As evidence, in 2022 Apple’s App Store blocked over $2 billion in fraudulent transactions by banning fraudulent accounts from transacting. Apple also regularly removes apps that violate its guidelines around user safety, data collection policies, objectionable content, and more.
Similarly, Google Play has an extensive list of prohibited content and removes apps that violate its policies. Both stores have banned apps before when they fail to meet standards.
If governments legally ban TikTok, Apple and Google would be obligated to remove the app from their stores, preventing any new downloads or app updates going forward.
Effects on TikTok Users
A ban on TikTok in the United States would directly impact the app’s approximately 100 million monthly active users in the country. If a ban goes into effect, American users would no longer be able to post or view content on the platform.
TikTok has become a hugely popular app thanks in large part to the ability for users to create, share, and engage with short-form videos. A ban would abruptly cut off users from this entertainment source and online community. For many TikTok users, it is a major way they connect with friends, express themselves creatively, and stay on top of trends.
Losing access to TikTok would leave users feeling disconnected from their digital lives and networks. According to surveys, a majority of U.S. teenagers use TikTok daily, so a ban would significantly impact how this demographic socializes and spends time online.
While alternative platforms like YouTube, Instagram, and Snapchat offer some video features, none have replicated TikTok’s signature mix of viral challenges, remixes, filters, and niche communities. A TikTok ban would leave American users without a clear replacement for the app’s uniquely engaging experience.
Effects on TikTok Creators
A ban on TikTok in the U.S. would likely have significant negative effects on the creators and influencers who rely on the platform. According to one report, a TikTok ban could have a “catastrophic impact” on the over $100 billion creator economy (1). Many TikTok creators earn their full-time income through branded content, sponsorships, and other monetization opportunities on the app. If TikTok were banned, these creators would lose direct access to their large audiences and see a major drop in income (2).
One of the biggest impacts would be the loss of audience. Most TikTok creators have built their entire follower base on that platform. If TikTok were banned, they would lose connections with those followers unless the audience migrated with them to other platforms (3). However, rebuilding an audience of that size elsewhere would likely be very difficult and take significant time and resources. Overall, creators would see a massive decline in viewership without access to the TikTok ecosystem.
With reduced audience reach, branded partnership opportunities are also likely to decrease substantially. Advertisers and sponsors are drawn to partner with influencers who have large, engaged followings on specific platforms. Removing access to the platform would make it very hard for creators to maintain the brand deals that provide a major revenue stream.
In summary, banning TikTok could financially devastate creators who rely on the platform’s audience, monetization tools, and sponsorship opportunities for income. Rebuilding their follower base and revenue sources elsewhere would pose a major challenge.
Alternatives for TikTok Users
If TikTok were to be banned in the United States, many TikTok users would likely migrate to other platforms that allow short-form video sharing. Some of the most popular alternatives include:
YouTube Shorts – This is YouTube’s short-form video feature that allows videos up to 60 seconds. Many influencers are already using YouTube Shorts in addition to TikTok as a way to expand their audience. If TikTok were banned, YouTube Shorts would likely see a surge in usage and new creators looking for a platform. [1]
Instagram Reels – Reels are Instagram’s short videos that can be up to 30 seconds. Reels has similarities to TikTok and could attract previous TikTok users, especially since many already have Instagram accounts and followers. Instagram would need to continue innovating and improving Reels to attract and retain TikTok’s market share. [2]
Triller – This app is often cited as the top alternative to TikTok, as it offers a nearly identical short video sharing experience. Triller has already seen growth due to TikTok bans in India. With a TikTok ban in the US, Triller would likely see an influx of creators and users migrate from TikTok. However, it would need to scale its infrastructure to handle the increased demand.
Impact on TikTok Company
A ban on TikTok in the US would have significant financial implications for the company behind the app, ByteDance. As of 2022, the US accounts for over 100 million of TikTok’s estimated 1 billion monthly active users globally (1). This represents around 10% of the company’s total user base. According to leaked financial documents, ByteDance generated over $4 billion in net profit in 2019, with over 50% of that coming from Douyin, the Chinese version of TikTok (2). While specific financial data on TikTok alone is not known, analysts estimate that a ban in the US could impact up to 20% of the company’s global revenue (3).
Beyond the direct advertising revenue loss, a US ban would negatively impact TikTok’s brand and valuation. In 2021, ByteDance was valued at $140 billion in private markets. However, government scrutiny, security concerns and the threat of bans have depressed the company’s value. Investment banks seeking to take ByteDance public reportedly struggle to achieve a valuation above $60 billion (3). Bans or limitations on TikTok’s operations in key Western markets further threaten ByteDance’s growth prospects and ability to monetize its massive user base. While the company is exploring contingencies like shifting resources to Douyin and other apps, the loss of full access to US TikTok users would nonetheless represent a major setback.
(1) https://biz.crast.net/if-the-us-bans-tiktok-where-will-gen-z-go-for-financial-advice/
(2) https://www.wsj.com/articles/tiktoks-secret-sauce-12112728973
(3) https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/15/technology/tiktok-china-us.html
Broader Economic Impacts
A TikTok ban would likely have significant economic consequences beyond the app and its users. TikTok has created a booming ecosystem for marketing, advertising, and influencing. According to research from The TikTok Effect, in 2021 brands spent up to $2 billion on influencer marketing campaigns on TikTok in the US alone.
Banning TikTok would drastically impact this marketing ecosystem built around the platform. As reported by the Chicago Booth Review, a ban would likely lead to losses in short-term advertising and marketing spending in the range of $10 to $15 billion. Brands that rely on TikTok for promotions and influencer campaigns would need to quickly shift strategies and find alternative platforms.
There is also potential for substantial job losses associated with a TikTok ban. As discussed in a Wall Street Journal article, TikTok directly employs over 1,000 people in the US, and banning the app would put these jobs at risk. Thousands more jobs have been created to support the influencer and creator economy of TikTok.
While some economic activity may eventually shift to other platforms, an abrupt TikTok ban would likely cause significant short-term economic disruption and uncertainty. Policymakers would need to be aware of these broader business impacts.
Censorship & Free Speech Concerns
Banning TikTok entirely raises significant free speech issues and concerns around censorship and government overreach. The app serves as a platform for millions of Americans to express themselves and share ideas. A complete ban could be viewed as a violation of First Amendment rights, as argued by groups like the ACLU.
Some legal experts contend that while the government has the power to regulate foreign companies operating in the U.S., banning one company outright goes too far and infringes on free expression (Reuters, 2023). Critics say such action would set a dangerous precedent of limiting free speech rights in the name of national security.
Defenders of a potential TikTok ban claim it does not violate free speech, as users could simply migrate to alternative platforms. However, others argue TikTok fills a unique role in political and social discourse for millions of Americans, especially younger users.
There are also concerns that banning TikTok could prompt further censorship of the internet by governments. Some view it as a slippery slope towards stifling free expression online and allowing greater control over the flow of information (CDT, 2023).
Conclusion
In summary, a potential ban of TikTok would likely be implemented through legal actions that prohibit the app from operating within certain countries. While the specifics may vary, the outcomes would likely include TikTok being removed from app stores, blocked by internet service providers, and restricted from accessing user data.
For TikTok users, especially the creators and influencers who rely on it, a ban would force them to transition their content efforts to new platforms. Many popular creators would likely be able to retain much of their audiences by shifting to YouTube, Instagram, or Snapchat. However, a TikTok ban would still represent a major disruption for the millions of users who have come to enjoy the app’s unique content and features.
Looking ahead, TikTok’s owners would face major business challenges if the app were blocked in multiple markets. However, they would likely explore ways to relaunch under a new brand, structure or set of policies that satisfied regulatory concerns. While a complete global ban remains unlikely, targeted restrictions could reshape the landscape for short video apps and social media platforms more broadly.
